Prediction markets work. Polymarket and Kalshi proved that with $45 billion in volume last year. But every contract on every platform settles the same way: yes or no. Will inflation be over 0.8%? Will NVIDIA beat earnings per share estimates? Binary contracts answer the whether — and are completely silent on the by how much.
NVIDIA reports Q2 earnings in July. You think revenue will be $31.8B. The market is trading at $31.2B — you see $600M of edge. You buy at $31.2B with a position sized to your conviction. On Reeshaw, your entry price and position size encode your entire thesis. The further revenue settles above $31.2B, the more you make. The further below, the more you lose. One market. One position. One price that reflects your edge.
One outcome. No precision. No edge.
Trade numbers, not yes/no. If you think it'll end up higher than the market price, you buy. If you think it'll end up lower, you sell. Your payout scales directly with how right you are — the further the outcome moves in your favour from your entry, the more you make. The more wrong you are, the more you lose. One instrument, one position, one clean payoff.
Earnings, GDP, goal margins, vote margins — any outcome that has a number has a market.
Twenty-five binary contracts collapsed into one. All your conviction in a single place.
Deeper liquidity. Tighter spreads. One position.
Your position on the distribution is your signal. The payoff penalizes imprecision directly.
Overconfidence costs money. Self-calibrating by design.
Open positions form a live probability curve, updated in real time by the crowd.
The data Bloomberg and macro funds can't buy anywhere else.